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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR)
QLGC 16.070.0%Aug 24 5:00 PM EST

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To: Craig Stevenson who wrote (19907)12/26/1998 9:25:00 PM
From: Greg Hull  Read Replies (2) of 29386
 
Craig,

I expect the short interest to be below 1M shares, but I also agree with Ed that it isn't terribly important. It will not signal the end of the earth if it's still closer to 1.5M.

Kerry reported that as of 12/16/98 there were 220 preferred shares outstanding. This is worth less than 900K common shares at recent conversion prices. Since some of the short sales were covered between Oct and Nov, I would guess that this pattern would continue and more were covered between Nov and Dec.

I have been swayed by those who stated that the big boys do not risk a sure thing for a less probable better thing, and therefore almost all of the common shares resulting from conversion are sold long or shorted almost immediately, or even before conversion. The Dec 15 short position might just be the sale of shares that could not be converted before 12/21/98, which Kerry reported as the last release date.

Whether anyone besides the preferred shareholders have been shorting I have no way of knowing. From the material George has presented in the last 3 months it seems unlikely (assuming I understood them correctly). I'm guessing that it is unlikely that any short sale has been open for more than 6 months, and that those borrowed shares probably would have been called in by now.

This is kind of like an earnings/revenue contest from past quarters. Perhaps everyone would like to submit a guess as to the short position on 12/15/98. I don't know what the prize would be - maybe one of the T-shirts that George is printing. If anyone cares to submit a guess, I'll tally the submissions. How about a deadline of 12/28/98 at 11:59pm EST, or when they are first reported here if the position is published on Monday.

How many people think the short position will increase?

Greg

P.S. Hey Iceburg, the game has been over for a few hours. Why haven't you reported the score yet?
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