Leto,
Thanks for the insight into Hitachi's woes, I suspect that they are
not the only major Japanese manufacturer that has lost billions over
the last couple of years. I agree with your opinion on CPU's as
commodity products. As profit margins dwindle (as competition among the box makers increases) the physical dimensions of the end product
will decrease also. National Semiconductor's push to integrate multiple feature functionality onto a single piece of silicon will
soon come under pressure from the likes of INTC and AMD over course
of the next year. The manufacturer that can offer the most
integrated features as a single chip/module product will lead the
pack into the low cost commodity computer business. As for flat panel
it will likely be several years before it is as cost effective as
a standard monitor. A thrifty consumer can get a 17" monitor for
around $300-350, I'm not sure what a 17" flat panel costs but suspect
it is at least 2x-5x the cost of a monitor, so I see no compelling
reason to think that flat panels will have the allure, except for the
high end of the market, unless prices become competitive. I think the Personal Data Assistant will soon become a necessity/mainstay, once
they have the full functionality of a standard computer incorporated into them. Just think, they would replace todays laptops if they
had the same functionality and built in universal docking
capability. It would be essential for businesses/homes to maintain
docking stations while the actual compact form computer moved around
with its owner. Some of the new digital phones have built in functions like beeper, fax/messaging, clock, phone and short range
radio, and there will soon be tele-conferencing/tv incorporated. I suspect that soon the PDA's will incorporate all this
functionality and more into a single product that sells for less than $800 (minus docking station). The downside to all this is that as more functionality is built into each silicon chip it will diminish
the need for many specialized silicon chips that are prevalent today,
the upside is that these "super chips" will be mass produced very
cheaply which is good for the leading manufacturers, product manufacturers and consumers.
Just my opinion,
BB |
