Pep Boys is an interesting case of exactly what you pointed out. A company with an excellent historical track record, a well-known brand name, and a very cheap price relative to its history. I looked at it in the mid-20s, I looked at it in the high teens, and I was shocked at how low it got, but never bought it. Why? I wanted to, but every time I dug into it, I could find no reason to buy.
The franchise appears to be broken - i.e. new competitors and no more room to grow in their core business - and management has no answer. So that tells me to take the historical track as...history. When I look for what protects me on the downside, there is no meaningful asset value, no meaningful dividend yield. Management is questionable. But the stock is so far out of favor with Wall Street that there may very well be something there, but on the other hand, nobody seems scared enough for it to be a steal. A takeover candidate? Who buys them? The most likely candidates probably would face anti-trust problems.
Whether you call it a value stock or a dog, it is simply not what I am looking for, which is a fat pitch right over the plate. None of the valuation tools I use fit this situation - maybe there is another tool by which somebody else could have confidence in PBY as real value. Call me neutral. |