G'day all - hope y'all had a merry and safe holiday weekend, and make sure y'all rest enough for another round of festivities in the coming week.
dear Jon, you concluded "Sorry, my writing is not so eloquent nor humble. [p]hmmm.... come to think of it, maybe I should get into currency future. Buy some euro and sell pound and greenback."
Regardless, I certainly admire your putting the $ where the mouth is <g>.
However, historical analysis [as most of your post seems to be] is a funny thing. As a majority of opinions, it is considered an art [as opposed to a science] by most universities. Indeed, the US has benefitted a lot by not having a major war in its continent. But I do not understand your notion of "wind"? Is there any substantiation via historical analysis and/or quantitative analysis. Also, why would private cos buy Euros? I mean, if these are multinationals, then they may been buying [hedging] foreign currencies [vs local currency] in countries they are doing biz.
If by wind you mean the mass psychology [zeitgeist, if you will,] then things are quite inconclusive. It is true that Europe has been coming out of its recession with a new found gospel of "shareholder values" to boot, but it one is to look at trends, anecdotal evidence seems to suggest globalization. Companies like DamlierChrylser. While EXXON and MOBIL are talking of merger here in the US, which certainly will affect other integrated, MOBIL is having joint venture with BP [?] in Australia. Finally [but certainly not the last point,] by the time EU is fully integrated by 2002, who knows what may happen to ASEAN and NAFTA etc.
best, Bosco
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