Here we go for 1999:
I wanted to make WCOM my top pick but a market cap of $128 billion doesn't quite fit. WCOM has been a core holding for me since mid-1998, now up more than 35% over my average purchase price. Every tech fund in the universe will be holding WCOM for the next several years. I expect WCOM to reach $100 based on 50x the FY99 estimated earnings of $2. Projected EPS growth is actually 100%. I will leave it up to the group to decide if a $50K portfolio like this one should include a few shares of WCOM.
1. CMGI – What's the most profitable part of the Internet? Selling Internet stock. Who does that better than anyone else? CMGI. Current market cap of $2.8 billion. Revenues and earnings are misleading because they will be whatever CMGI wants them to be in a given quarter – they just sell more or less of their holdings. I expect CMGI to be a gold mine again in the coming year. After it splits 2 – 1 on January 11 it should break 100 again before December. I'm probably biased since riding CMGI from 71 to 117 was my single best trade ever. Expect a lot of volatility from CMGI, however.
2. RNWK – staying with Internet stocks, I will take RNWK though I have never owned it myself due to short-term unpredictability. A small float with high short interest, revenues growing at 100% and survived a major attack by MSFT. RNWK now has the top audio and video standard on the Internet. They should make a fortune selling high-margin server software. Look for 50 – 100% share price gains in 1999 unless a major competitor emerges. Current market cap $1.2 billion.
3. MXTR – the new kid in the disk drive stock sector, MXTR is projected to triple earnings in 1999 after 50% revenue growth in 1998. Best part is the total lack of overhead in the chart, unlike QNTM and WDC. Analysts like this sector again. I think MXTR is the place to play it. Current market cap $1.3 billion.
4. PLCM – a recent addition to my portfolio, PLCM is a market leader in videoconferencing for corporations. Unlike other videoconferencing wannabes (OCOM), PLCM has seen 100% revenue growth in the last year. Earnings for 1999 are projected to double. Current market cap $653 million.
5. MFNX – I have been watching this stock go through the roof lately but not buying. My mistake. A fiber optic network builder rated #1 in its sector by Zacks, MFNX has been flirting with break even lately, a sharp contrast to other network providers who are carrying huge debt and still losing lots of money. MFNX already split twice in 1998; should be good for a double from here in 1999.
There are five picks to chew on (six if you count WCOM). Every contest has runners up, and my next five are CC, DISH, IACO, FHT and GEEK.
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