Niels, Unfortunately the Intel "Threat" will likely get worse in the second half on 97.
And when I mean threat, I mean the real threat of Klamath, combined with AGP, and Auburn or other new 3D chips(Not the ignorant, but amusing "threat" that was discussed here a while back as to whether the MMX chips didn't need a graphics processor :-p ).
And if that threat isn't enough, there's also Microsoft waiting in the wings with the Talisman architecture, that could also change this market space dramatically.
Obviously, the capable S3 management is aware of these market developments and will attempt to respond. But the risk to their company is great. It's this risk that keeps the price low.
If you or any one else on this thread is not aware of these developments it would pay to keep yourself informed. (Throwing your shares in a closet and checking to see if the stock is $30 once a year won't work.) You can stay up on this market buy reading Electronic Buyers Guide, EE Times, Jon Peddie to name a few - all excellent technical resources.
Don't under estimate the knowlodge of the analysts like Chaplinsky, etc.. they know the risks here as well. They also look bad the longer they have a strong buy on a company like S3 that doesn't respond.
I'm long here because I thought the time for S3 stock to move was these past 2 - 3 weeks. All the good news and analysts ratings are firing full force on a stock selling at the same price in sold at in June of 1995. They are on top of their game now with Trio and Virge, and should hold thru Q2, after that all bets are off.
On another note, if I see one more person mis-quote Peter Lynch on this thread as an argument for holding S3 shares for the next millenium, I think I'm going to cry!!! (Maybe I'll try and e-mail Peter to see what he thinks)
I'm sure Peter Lynch never advocated putting alot of money into a high tech niche company who must re-invent its product every 6 months and is facing competition from some of the largest predators in the business world. As I remember, Peter Lynch in his days at Magellen shunned high tech stocks like S3 because their risks were in direct conflict with his research, buy and hold strategy. Peter Lynch liked stocks like Disney not S3. |
