"Pretty darned impressive"....
Hi Lee:
How about this?
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Sun, 27 Dec 1998, 12:56pm EST
12/27 U.S. Economic Reports May Show Record Home Sales, High Consumer Confidence -Year Ending on a Healthy Economic Note: U.S. Economy Preview
Washington, Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The final week of 1998 is
likely to produce robust statistics on housing and consumer
confidence that suggest the U.S. economy is heading into the new
year on a solid footing, with no inflation and a healthy stock
market.
''Pretty darned impressive,'' said Paul Kasriel, an
economist at Northern Trust in Chicago. ''It's almost a carbon
copy of the late 1920s. Let's hope it ends better.''
Sales of previously owned homes probably held steady in
November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.790 million,
the same as October -- putting resales on course for their
strongest year ever, analysts said.
The National Association of Realtors, which will issue the
report Tuesday, is forecasting that home resales will total 4.75
million for all of this year -- surpassing the 1997 record of
4.22 million.
The booming home sales are a result of consumers' rising
incomes and an abundance of jobs. At 4.4 percent, the nation's
unemployment rate is one of the lowest in almost three decades.
Record home sales are also driven by mortgage rates that
have remained below 7 percent since June.
Those rosy economic figures help explain why consumer
confidence has been running at such lofty levels. On Tuesday, the
Conference Board, a New York-based business group, is expected to
report that its consumer confidence index racked up a respectable
reading of 125.4 in November, just below October's 126.0, and not
far below the recent peak of 138.2 in June.
Consumer Attitudes
The Conference Board surveys 5,000 households on their
attitudes toward business conditions, their employment prospects
jobs, and their paychecks. ''Consumers' expectations and the
fulfillment of them in spending behavior are important,'' said
analysts at Fleet Financial Group of Boston. Consumer spending,
after all, accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic growth.
Reflecting the recent rebound in the stock market, the index
of leading economic indicators -- another Conference Board report
-- is expected to register a gain of 0.4 percent for November,
the largest increase since a 0.5 percent gain in July. In
October, the LEI, which is intended to project growth over the
next half year, rose 0.1 percent. The LEI will be issued
Wednesday.
The jobless claims report, set for release Thursday, is
expected to point to more strength in labor markets following a
drop of 13,000 in claims to 287,000 in the week ended Dec. 19.
That was the lowest level since July 1997, the Labor Department
said.
Weakness, however, persists in manufacturing where
recessions in Japan and other countries have pummeled U.S.
exports. The Chicago purchasing managers index, a gauge of
factory activity in the Great Lakes states, is expected to
register a decline in December to 49.8 from 50.2 during November.
A reading below 50 suggests manufacturing is contracting. The
Chicago purchasing managers report is set for release Thursday.
Bloomberg Survey
Date Time Period Indicator Survey Prior
12/29 10:00 Dec. Consumer confidence 125.4 126.0
12/29 10:00 Nov. Home resales 4.790M 4.790M
12/30 10:00 Nov. Leading indicators 0.4% 0.1%
12/31 8:30 12/26 Initial Jobless Claims --- 287K
12/31 10:00 Dec. Chicago Purchasing Mgr 49.8 50.2
Federal Reserve, Treasury
No speaking engagements are on the official schedules.
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