Adam, I'm not savvy enough to understand your post, but I'm intrigued by it. What are the odds that the FCC will declare that every ISP get equal access, and why will this be so beneficial to AOL???
Whenever the FCC is involved, anything can happen. Its a pretty complex situation. In the not so far future the internet (along a standard type of transmission called IP, which is an abbreviation for Internet Protocol) will be used to make the equivalent of what a phone call is today using a conventional telephone. Voice and data transmission will converge (a market that both CSCO, with its data prowlness, and LU, the king of voice transmission, are fighting so hard for right now) so that you can go to your computer (or any type of internet enabled device) and talk to someone over the net.
A fast connection speed is needed for optimal "net calls", this is where the fiber optic pipes of the cable companies and ATHM come into play. If you receive cable you can only get service from one cable company, the one that services your area. Its as pure a monopoly as you can get. Same thing rings true with IP protocol telepony, if you want to make a net call you will have to use the internet provider that your cable company offers, which will either be TWX's RoadRunner or TCI's ATHM. And its either one or the other due to the fact that cable companies sign exclusive contracts that automatically excludes the other service.
This is where the FCC comes in. The FCC could rule that every ISP could have equal access to the cable companies' high bandwidth pipes at no extra charge (just saying that makes me cringe HAHAHA). In effect, the FCC is saying that the pipes are a utility and everyone has a right to them. Its a bit like how the telephone system is set up right now where you pick your own long distance provider but use the network that your local phone operator provides. The FCC standpoint is that if ATHM or TWX's RR has total control over this new standard they will overcharge the consumer because they cannot switch to another competing provider. That is the reason AT&T paid such a premium for TCI recently. T wants to get in on the IP call at the ground level.
From the many comments that I have heard on this matter the consensus is that it can go 50/50 either way as far as the FCC ruling to open up the pipes. I say there is no way the FCC can force the cable companies to open up the pipes. It would not be fair for TCI to invest so many millions into building the infrastructure for broadband access just to wind up letting every ISP have a free and equal access.
If the FCC does open up the pipes, AOL will be the big winner since it has such a HUGE subscriber base and established top notch brand name. The cable pipes will remedy all the discontent with broken connections and slow speeds that plagues AOL now. AOL will grow like a weed. All this without the costs of AOL having to build this high speed infrastructure itself.
Curious to hear your comments. Take care. -Adam |
