Thanks Gregg for the good summary. That all looks about right. What about the narrow escape from bidding on Brazilian telecoms and the money lost in Australia because of some rules muckup? QUALCOMM has plenty of opportunity for feats of clay. I suppose we should expect some more in 1999, hopefully of the stumbling rather than fatal variety.
It was nice to see the rave about 'most underhyped product' and that QUALCOMM handsets were one of the items listed. The first and main one! It was worth repeating here:
cbs.marketwatch.com
By Rebecca Lynn Eisenberg, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update 11:07 AM ET Dec 24, 1998
I want to disagree with one item in your year in review, all of which I liked apart from this bit. This bit:
"As for 3G, I will go out on a limb with this prediction, but here goes. The compromise agreement that will, and must, be worked out between Qualcomm and Ericsson will end the destructive antipathy that has existed between the two companies. Ericsson will gain a direct sequence spread spectrum solution for its customers and Qualcomm will see an end to the powerful PR campaign against it in particular, and CDMA in general, plus a greatly expanded market opportunity that encompasses the GSM universe."
I don't agree that a compromise agreement must or necessarily will be worked out. I do think it would benefit both parties, but if one party is obtuse and self-destructive, which heaps of people are, then QUALCOMM might well have to proceed without Ericy. Neither do I believe that an agreement would end destructive antipathy - Ericy is destructive and has antipathy to Q! Even with an agreement, I think that Ericy would retain their destructive character and adopt short-sighted positions on later developments. They would also retain antipathy. Competitiveness and winning and losing is part of commercial activity. Just as in sport, some 'sportsmen' become hostile and unpleasant, so in the commercial world, some people are naturally like that. They won't change.
QUALCOMM does not exhibit those characteristics [obtuse, antipathy, destructive] and adopting them wouldn't help. I put out enough antipathy towards Ericy to make up for Q! being reasonable, reasoning and constructive. Neither do I wish them to. It wouldn't help them in their commercial efforts. They are doing just fine. Persevering with negotiations, barely raising a word of ire let alone counter-accusations to what Ericy and Frezza have said.
If an agreement turns out to be in QUALCOMM's interests, Ericy will gain a great deal.
But QUALCOMM won't see an end to the PR campaigns against them. Though the anti-CDMA campaigns might cease. Of course the anti-cdmaOne campaigns would continue unabated "redundant, old-fashioned legacy systems blocking the adoption of Ericy's brilliant new WWeb[TM] products and cdmaOne systems should be replaced or upgraded forthwith".
Q! as you say, should see a greatly expanded market opportunity though = access to fortress Europe, China etc. But that should come with or without a 3G agreement. It should result from free trade telecommunications agreements signed by European countries.
One last bit of pickiness; you said: "Ericsson will gain a direct sequence spread spectrum solution for its customers..."
People talk about 'owning markets' 'owning customers' and this hints in that direction with '...its customers...' Okay, I know it is picking nits, but nobody 'owns' customers and they are not 'Ericy's customers'. If Ericy doesn't have cdmaOne or cdma2000 or WWeb then they won't have those customers either. Q! or another licensee will have them. Ericy does not 'own' those customers and cannot use them as a negotiating plank.
Anyone who has had much or even a little to do with customers knows that they do not 'own' them. Customers are about as tenuous as love partners and the relationships are similar.
Picky, picky, I know, but it's important to me.
Overall, thanks for the summary. 1998 was not quite as good as I hoped, but not far off it. 1999 should be better than I hope [since I've been softened up a bit].
$80 is now nearly 6 months old - markets are amazingly slow to get the right idea! Maybe they will. They've got a couple of days left before it hits that spot. Yahooligan and Web investors must get vertigo soon and the money will flood elsewhere to the real Web builders. As George Gilder said recently - the last mile is the big value adding place and QUALCOMM is sitting right there like a funnel Web spider, catching all who enter. Well, he didn't use those words, but that was the gist of it.
Mqurice |
