Michael and thread:
In stepping back and reading the last month's stuff and references to the semi and semi equipment market, I noticed that while Michael mentions it, the thread does not listen to the core thesis, which I take to read: (and Mike, be sure and correct my errors)
"The attempt at a build to order model has caused a seasonal upturn in Q4 which should be stronger than expected, causing many to say 'boom times ahead." Of course, this is just seasonal, and the normal after Xmas inventory issues will be with us again, causing disappointments in Q1-99, so there will be shorting opportunities emerging. In fact, this overhang will be worse than expected because of the reduction in hardware buying for y2k in businesses for 1999."
Another thesis I noticed: "The world banking system continues to be under stress, and the staples that are being used to hold it together will snap in the next year."
It is my opinion that you have to believe this entire thesis in order to invest in all of the things you do, Mike. Right?
Z |
