eab, i own puts on nvls, mu, cdwc and altr. first and foremost, my issue is valuation relative to fundamentals. nvls is up 200% in about 2 months based on diminutive net orders and relatively small absolute gains in orders. i think orders are about 50% of 1995.
that, in an of itself is absurd, imho. i also see the low down on the food chain types talking up a storm about grrreat sales while gtw, muei, ingram and inacom report below expectation sales and hwp lowers corporate boxes up to 20% and toshiba lowers laptops up to 14% in a day.
this tells me - plenty of input w/o the output.
this potential juggernaut of an inventory correction, coupled with insane valuation based upon the unmitigated greed of not missing out on the next semi "turn," should lead to profitable q1 puts.
i also own altr puts for valuation relative to business performance and diversification issues.
so, i think my puts can make money even if what mike and earlie see in the channel isn't really there. i think it is there.
as for banks... i'm waiting as i would like to see the techs crash and burn so i can have some firepower to chase the banks - they may take a while, imho. |
