Michael:
With regards to Intel puts (boy, has this been emotional fodder), I think everyone, including Paul Engel the annoying Intel shrill, is missing the picture a little.
For the record, I bought Intel 2000 leaps at about 101, and my target is in the 150 range by June or sooner.
Here's the story....
(A) I believe the thesis on the box makers and Xmas.
Point (a) is not critical to Intel stock price. Why? Because of y2k. Now you're probably going ....Huh?
(B) Server and high end sales will boost margins and revenues in the first half of 1999 because of y2k installs, but should falter by early summer. Stock goes up into spring.
A while ago, I read some analysis and did some follow up on the future of the Intel model. By the way, all the analysts are right - the mainstream PC market will not support the old Intel product strategy of forced obsolescence so easily. Declining MPU prices over time, will offset the unit increases keeping revenue for Intel in the next 3 years to the PC market flat. But that is NOT where their growth is going to come from...
Silicon Graphics just announced a Wintel platform, Compaq and Dell are attacking IBM and HP in the server area, and DEC is now Intel/Compaq. This are symptoms of the key growth strategy for Intel. Server MPUs, where they only have a quarter of the market. In the next four years, if they get that share to the 60-65% level, then their topline growth can be maintained at near historical levels.
y2k is initiating this wave, IMO.
Z |
