Skeeter and all:
Thanks for being the straightman in my marathon here.
Semi equips ... here are the feelings I had while reading the last month.
(1) The semi equips were being lumped into a PC issue - part correctly but part not so. Stay tuned, I have a fundamental valuation analysis I have done in two coming posts.
(2) NVLS was being unfairly singled out in my mind. This was in part a feeling based on the fact that I know that NVLS is the best finacially run company in the sector, and that other stocks could be pointed to as being better fundamental short plays.
(3) I have stated in this thread before that the PRICE of semi equipment stocks responds directly to ORDER rates only. Book-to-bill is a meaningless ratio. Compare the booking levels of November to September and you will see a 40+% rise. Granted this is from a low base.
Your point of the absolute sales level of the industry being well below 1995, or even 1997, is well taken. However, the valuation model I will present is a price to sales ratio and will take this into account. I was surprised at the outcome of some issues myself, and I think they will surprise you.
For the record (and I am not a shrill), I own the stocks of NVLS (since 33), MTSN, TER, and KLIC, and options in KLIC. Ok, call me crazy. I will be out of NVLS by mid-January and will reevaluate KLIC the last week of January. TER and MTSN are holdings for me until at least April, for different reasons.
Z |
