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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: E_K_S who wrote (7263)1/22/1997 10:23:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy   of 42771
 
Help. We know that something should happen before the end of
February, and this seems to have been verifed by Marengi in the Lan
times interview where he stated that they intended on sticking to their
6 month window on a CEO. It seems there are four possible
scenarios:

1) Worst case - Marengi is appointed CEO. In this case, they would
obviously wait till earnings or after on the assumption they are
in-line or better. I can't believe anyone would find his appointment
acceptable if earnings are bad.

2) Worst case 2 - In-line or better earnings, and announcement that
the CEO selection will be delayed. For some reason this sounds
like the Novell I know.

3) Better case - New CEO is announced. Would they wait until after
earnings? This case sure seems unlikely to me based on the
absence of any kind of word, or even rumors as to possibilities.

4) Best case - Buyout/merger as opposed to CEO announcement.
Would they wait till after in-line or better earnings to help ward
off a war by the aquiring companies shareholders? Or, would
they do it before hand to keep the buyout price managable for
the aquiring company.

My personal belief is still a buyout. This is the only senario that
would explain the incompetence of the last 6-months IMO. Further,
there has not been much insider selling, suggesting internal confidence
in the company, yet there has not been much insider buying either. It
is my understanding it would be illegal for folks in the know to be
buying.

Any thoughts would be appreciated. I don't want to lose another
grand or so on my February 12.5 options, and am thinking about trading
up while I still can.

Thanks

sf

Thanks

sf.
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