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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Jon K. who wrote (7761)	12/28/1998 9:23:00 AM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) of 9980

Its good that we have the Euro conversation going - I personally believe it will fail and also hope it fails. For the first part, I believe it will fail because: 1. Its never been done before, and therefore won't succeed on its first trial. 2. The economies of the region are too different for a concerted monetary policy. The have always been very different and the currency won't change that. 3. The beureaucrats won't be able to agree on policy once monetary policy needs its first adjustment. Plus, its a power struggle for control over the whole deal between France and Germany - the silly schedule for leadership they arranged will lead to trouble. Why I hope it fails: If it works out well, in 30 years we may very well have a 'United States of Europe'. This scares me more than anything. We surely do not need another superpower and a new arms race. It is perfectly feasible that if the Euro works out well that 20 years or so down the road a united political system in Europe may be formed. That would be alot easier than pulling off a sucessful Euro introduction, IMO.

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