James, consider RAMBUS. Here is a company which has a patented widget as it were which enables a computer's memory chip to talk to its logic chip about 100 times faster than the currently used technology. Its owners include Grove of Intel, and Gates of MSFT. Intel has indicated it will use RAMBUS product nedxt year and has bought control of a competitor to ensure it also buys the product. The story of the stock will be enrirely in the future. BUt if it happens, all computers will use RAMBUS technology all of them. There is an good analysis by H & Quist on the Rambus thread, four of five pages, posted about two weeks ago. Can you ignore its current high P/E? Here are some projections:
RAMBUS NUMBERS
(EST.)
year share price
1999 100-200
2000 432-865
2001 917-1835
2002 1339-2679
2003 1812-3624
ok, i'll settle for that.
basis for the above
"The midyear forecast was prepared by analysts for the World
Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), a global organization
representing 73 semiconductor companies. According to the WSTS, global
sales will increase 17.2 percent in 1999 to $157.7 billion, 18.5 percent
in 2000 to $187.0 billion, and 18.9 percent in 2001 to $222.3 billion."
rdram is forecasted to capture 6%, 30%, and 60% of the next 3 years.
1999 2000 2001
total world production 157.7B 187B 223.3
rdram share 9.5B 56.1B 134B
royalty @ 1.7% 161M 953M 2,278M
net @ 39% 62.8M 372M 888M
per share (25m) $2.51 $14.88 $35.52 |
