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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: Biotech Jim who wrote (6191)12/28/1998 3:11:00 PM
From: rkrw  Read Replies (2) of 9719
 
I own a slug of TKT.

I agree with V1 that a patent loss is priced into the stock. Its really HMR vs AMGN, so its a battle of 2 titans.
TKT has patented their production method for over 50 protein therapeutics, so the company is a lot more than EPO. Second protein candidate via HMR is expected to hit the clinic 1H 99. Rumored to be Neupogen, so that will be 2 battles with Amgen. I suspect the rumor is accurate in this case.
The EPO trial is fully in HMR's hands, so you will not see clinical data (if thats what you were asking for). Suffice it to say that the clinical data should mirror Amgen's EPO. The company is hopeful that its version will have less side effects, being fully human, but side effects are not a big issue for epo.

CEGE is due probably very low single digit royalties on TKT/HMR EPO. I've been told by TKT that HMR licensed the CEGE patents to cover all angles, however the technology is not being used for it and TKT has no need to license the technology or patents in the future.
The potential upside, long term, is huge in my opinion. I have no opinion on the patent battle. Don't expect a trial to be initiated until at least the start of 2001, so quite some time away. The case can't be heard until the HMR/TKT version is approved per Waxman-Hatch.
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