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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 211.50-6.4%11:43 AM EST

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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (41762)12/28/1998 8:12:00 PM
From: Carl R.  Read Replies (2) of 53903
 
My point is that there is no doubt that MU has the cash to survive, and that they are in very good shape relative to the competition. My point is that at this point in time the year 2000 looks much more promising for MU than the year 1999 looked a year ago. Do you question their ability to pay for the capital equipment that they have indicated that they intend to purchase over the next year? Do you believe that other DRAM makers are further along in converting to .21µ and achieving high yields? Do you believe that other DRAM makers will get to .18µ first? Can you look beyond this quarter? What is your point?

I do not believe your statement that PCs are moving into the inventory channel. All evidence is that because of the conversion to build to suit, inventories are much smaller than at this time last year. Who do you think is holding all this "inventory"? Dell? CPQ? Retailers?

And as for AMZN, nothing should be valued like AMZN. My point is that there is a reasonable basis for valuing MU at $50. If you want an example of ridiculous valuation, they aren't hard to find, but you have to look elsewhere. Personally, I would have a hard time justifying a price over book value for AMZN as I doubt that they will ever be profitable, but time will tell. I can tell you this much though, I don't have the balls to short them because once you completely lose touch with reality it is no harder to justify a price of $1000 than it is to justify a price of $300.

Carl
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