All, season greeting to you all. I'm still on vacation in Malaysia and have got to tell you that ciber cafe has completed its global presence.
After much reading and talking to people who do business in this region, I'm of the opinion that Asian economy will not recover as a whole in 1999. But don't look for more shoes to drop either as the general consensus is that the bottom is in except for probably Indonesia which has a bigger mess (economical and political) to deal with. However, no significant recovery is to be had in 1999 as there are too many holes to mend and the after shock of an economic landslide is still fresh in people's mind. The bank reserve
has largely dried off and except for those countries receiving IMF help, the end is not in sight. As to the region's stock markets, they have also gone up too much to justify further speculative buying. In fact, all eyes are now focusing on the US economy and if the US stock market sneezes, look for all to cry once again. The reliance on export to the US is still the peg to prevent further problems.
Gold - Demand is so ugly even in capital control country like in Malaysia people would put their cash reserve to buy other beaten down assets such as property, bussiness and even US$ and Euro before they even think about buying gold. In short, the place of gold is so low that it is probably at the bottom of the investment heap. There are plenty of other better opportunities for better, faster return than gold - as least this is how gold is being perceived. As to the black market for gold in a capital control environment - no one knows anything about it <GG>. |
