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Technology Stocks : Novellus
NVLS 2.400+2.1%Jul 24 5:00 PM EST

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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (1714)12/29/1998 2:05:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy  Read Replies (2) of 3813
 
Skeeter, the facts you cite may be somewhat deceiving. HP has been down and out for some time as you pointed out....IMO they always were a second or third tier PC choice and in no way any kind indication of PC sales. Not sure what what lines Inacom is into these days, but when I was in the business, IBM was big business for them. IBM has been losing PC market share for some time also. I used to be an IBM VAR and based on my experience they tried to maintain a "customers will pay for our quality" stance...didn't work and they didn't figure it out until it was too late.

Dell and CPQ are and have been stealing the show. IMO they are the only reliable guage of PC sales along with Intel and AMD of course. Don't quote me on this, but I thought last word I heard from Dell was six million a day on their website alone...up from 1 million a day a year or so ago. Don't forget Apple who for some strange reason seems to be making quite the comeback.

I'd anticipate further price cutting in current technology...this will spur further sales. Further, we're on the verge of the next generation of PC with copper technology that will likely create an entire new cycle of corporate, then end user buying. Then we have Asia and Latin America markets with lots of pent up growth potential that look likely to stabilize soon providing further punch.

I have no position in this stock one way or the other at the moment, but I would be careful shorting based on slowing PC sales logic. I think NVLS could see 65-75 in '99.

Regards,

sf

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