Arik,
>>>>>>>> The market has agreed with you so far. IMO seasonal factors are overrated and yesterday's volume (esp. NASDAQ) is agreeing with this view, but so far the market holds quite well close to its highs.
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Dont get me wrong, Im not bullish. Right now there are just too many mixed signals. The RUT was up but the BKX down, the A/D was weak, but the NEW HIGHs got above 100, etc.
I definitely do smell a top soon. My CLASS SELL signals from last WED are still in effect, and has not yet been negated with the DOW only 20 points above WED's highs. The timing of my class signals have been accurate recently and the it is common to be off 1 day. As for timing its off 2 days already, so it should be negated on the basis of time but the market is still near WED's highs. Normally, if the issue of time is negated, the the price would have also been negated, and the the DOW should be significantly above Wed's highs now.
Subjectively, I believe that the SANTA rally (trading days after Christmas into the 1st 2 days of JAN), are skewing the technicals now, but do not think it will last. If the market continues up/flat this week, I will probably initiate a PUT position on Thur/Mon. What I am afraid of is a whipsaw action by the DOW dropping some but going up more, something like down 100 then up 200. If the market continues up over the next few days it will just make the technicals more overbought.
I could be wrong, but I just dont see huge movements in either directions, at least for the next few short-term cycles. Until I stop getting so many mixed signals, I will stick to my range trading trend of roughly 1000 points, say about 9300/9400 - 8300/8400.
Seeya |
