OFF TOPIC
<< Don't laugh untill the facts are in... ie. in 5 years. >>
I don't think that it will take this long, at least for some names, and I believe AMZN will be among them.
However, generally speaking, the market has already decided Internet is reshaping every aspect of our lives and the valuations have become independent from current fundamentals. Throw in the fact that the stock floats of many names are quite small, there you have the dizzying prices. The funny thing for me is that this amazing run may not even be over. Internet stocks are owned by individuals to a very large extent. I wonder what would happen once the majority of the institutions decided that Internet is indeed here to stay.
The capital markets climate for internets have been much more favorable than other industries. No one can tell for sure, but if history is a guide, a decent amount of capital is probably being squandered for many dud names. What we will see in the end is good net companies driving out the bad ones, as in every business. As a result, anyone who has held on to a diversified Internet portfolio will probably have made out like bandits in 5 years (In fact, they already made out like bandits), whereas people holding to one or two names will be even better off or get burnt completely.
I believe that LGND will emerge as a winner among biotechs. However it looks like, a general comparison between biotechs and internets from the investor's perspective in 5 years time is more likely to disappoint biotech holders than internet holders.
FWIW
Alper |
