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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO
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To: orson sanderson who wrote (1463)12/29/1998 2:00:00 PM
From: Scott  Read Replies (1) of 3299
 
From: Morgan Stanley:

AFCI seems to be on track to make or slightly beat consensus estimates
for the December quarter. The 4Q consensus is $0.05 (net income down
74% year over year); our forecast is $0.04. We are looking for sales of

$70 million (down 18% year-over-year), gross margin of 43.0% and an
operating expense ratio of 94.0%.

Our end of the quarter checks indicate that AFCI had a decent uptick in
domestic orders in the first half of December. Parts availability may
limit shipments, and therefore upside, in the quarter. We expect AFCI
to report 4Q results at or slightly above consensus estimates of $0.05
(our EPS forecast is $0.04). November orders were weaker than expected
and we had lowered our forecast from $0.06. Recent orders suggest that
earnings of $0.05-$0.06 are realistic, with potential to create some
backlog.

Our checks indicate that U.S. CLEC business was strong and that
international demand may be bottoming. Asia and European business
remains soft. Due to the higher than expected domestic mix, gross
margins may be better than expected; we look for gross margins of
43.0%. Due to a higher domestic mix, we expect DSOs to decline from
last quarter's 107. We would look for revenue momentum in 2Q/99 (June).
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