Once again, I apologize if I misread your posts (by the way, I do not not catalogue your posts, I remembered the 8000 number and simply did a search on 8000 in the VLNC thread), but in recent days you have that argument with Larry whether the S-3 speaks of the first or third line, when taken together with the 8000 (which after six posts sunk in my mind as the number you promote), I felt that your view of the situation is line 1-laptops, line 2 cell phones and line 3 lap tops (in conjunction with an earlier post when you foresaw an additional line with more then twice the capacity of the first one), thus, my thinking that you were a little over optimistic and maybe these numbers should be compared to what the market can bear.
Is your current estimate that line 1 by itself would be operational at the rate of 2.5 million units or 3 Millions? I think that both cases are still quite high. If we indeed assume that VLNC will be a major player in the polymer based lithium sE storage systems, then a good (actually, IMHO, excellent) performance should be for them to capture 20% of that market in three years. By then there could be 22 MM (maybe 25?) laptop shipped yearly, but I doubt that more then 50% will sport a high price high energy density ESS. Thus taking the 25 MM, I believe that numbers much above 2.5 MM ESS per year (and not 1999, since we probably are not going to have, at best just 9 months of line operation) would be setting too high an expectation. Stock often react to meeting or missing expectation, and setting too high a goal will be detrimental to the performance of the stock. One is much better off setting up goals which are "beatable" with one hand tied behind their back.
Zeev |
