Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: E_K_S who wrote (7273)	1/23/1997 12:54:00 PM
From: Rich Young	of 42771

Sorry Paul, I don't buy the downsizing scenario. They still have a billion (plus whatever this quarter generates) in cash to spend on "strategic acquisitions" or whatever is was JY called it. I believe that Marengi will not get the job but you'll see him right next to whoever does in every photo. He'll definitely have won a large role, maybe president, with CEO and COB going to an outsider. You'll also hear lots of praise, excitement and optimism from Marengi in support of whoever it is after the announcement. Maybe that's why it's taking so long - he needs time to rehearse his happy look. Here's my scenario: They announce the CEO just before earnings in order to generate a little hoopla & beat their 6-mo "deadline". Stock will bounce maybe 1 1/2 to 2 points. Stock will tread water or move up slightly on earnings anticipation. New CEO announces .20 or .21, before restructuring and other charges, and gives Marengi credit for a job well done. Stock continues to advance slowly to 15 & holds. Going forward, I think they'll work on getting other web server companies (NSCP?) to port their products to IntranetWare (NLMs). Commerce servers might be a good start, especially for the KAYAK crowd. They could use that as an opportunity to talk up their security. They'll also sign up or acquire companies with NDS/Java-based products that complement the IntranetWare/Groupwise/NDS core. Who knows, maybe even getting into applications again if the new CEO has that kind of credibility. I think they've got to start building more of a reputation as a reliable applications server in order to buffet NT. Certainly a strong relationship with Oracle will go a long way toward that end. 2Q earnings will be in line. 3Q earnings will start to heat up. 4Q will catch fire. Just my .02. Rich

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