Jim, glad to see we're of the same opinion. I've actually spent some time looking at Amazon.com, and thinking about its model, and I'm pretty confident in what we've done. Re: it being the contrarian thing to do, I don't know many doing it. I expect that a lot of people are holding off to the new year to bail (and hence avoid the immediate tax hit on their gains); these are not long-term holders, but people who bought at 150 and saw their stock more than double in a short time. I can't imagine but that they'd be wanting to head for the doors once 1998's books are closed. The business economics stink, and once the trading momentum swings, I don't see any fundamental floor at all until we hit about 50. How many funds will keep it on the books for windowdressing but head for the doors in January? I'm thinking quite a few.
Timberland didn't give you much of a chance to get in (where my front-running actually got me the better price :)). I bought that one on less than 30 minutes of analysis because I thought the margin of safety was gargantuan. Like Deswell at 6. Now it's like Deswell at 8. There's still a MOS there, but you gotta be ready to take an immediate 25% hit and hold longer-term. FINL, well, glad it reacted like it did to a crummy report.
BTW, I did add ELAMF and UBB to my positions today on the long side.
They are Graham-like in their margin of safety as well. UBB could conceivably go to 7 again, but I'd just buy more.
Mike |
