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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)

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To: Larry Brubaker who wrote (6469)12/30/1998 12:27:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (3) of 27311
 
Larry, the way I read HellQat's report is that we probably should not expect billable shipments before the second quarter (I think that would be best estimate, since the OEM may need three months to evaluate and design the batteries into new products). I think it is a "best case scenario".

That gives you three months of available cash post that date. I have no idea what terms the box makers give (in the health care industry I am used to 90 days receivable), but the IDB grants and loans (any one has found out what are going to be grants and what are going to be loans out of the $40 MM or so from IDB?) should start and kick in. It is a very tight cash management schedule, and ramp up is very often associated with unforeseen problems. If the OEM's come back and require modifications, that may put you into a very tight box. I do not have information on the OEM's, their buying terms and thus a better handle on the cash flow. You have to worry about a "financial" accident requiring VLNC to go back to the well. The technical behavior of the stock is not, at this point, indicative that everything is going smoothly. That, of course, can change on dime.

Zeev
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