Just to show that there are people on other message boards discussing
and liking TMBS, I've provided examples. I ususally one of the
posters, but not in the last 30 days, since TMBS is not a trading
stock. It's a stock you buy low and ignore. and check on maybe once
a week.
===========================TMBS===========================
Subj: 50% Discount?
Date: 96-12-07 23:05:52 EST
From: Jalali
$8.125 to $8.625 for weeks very boring, however still looks like a bargain
for the patient investor.
Can only find five profitable accounting software companies:
Software 2000 SFWR
Timberline TMBS
Hyperion HYSW
State of the Art SOTA
Peoplesoft PSFT
Growth % Growth % Margin Market Dividend
PE Price/sales Revenue EPS % Cap Yield %
Millions
SFWR 19 1.5 12 71 6 107 0
TMBS 20 1.6 19 73 7 45 1.5
HYSW 42 2.1 37 52 6 391 0
SOTA 45 2.9 23 3 12 146 0
PSFT 100 12.7 93 65 13 4746 0
Average 45 4.16 37 53 9
TMBS/AVG PE 44% Price/Sales 38%
Timberline seems to be selling at a more than 50% discounts to this group¡s
average, but TMBS has the highest EPS Growth rate. At only a 7% margin has
room to increase margin along with sales. TMBS is the only company that pays
a dividend, $0.12/yr.
Any news on TMBS?
Jalali
======================================================
Subj: Increase in volume 12/17/96
Date: 96-12-17 17:30:04 EST
From: Roadblok
I have been monitoring TMBS for a couple months after reading you guys' posts
(very impressed with your comments and research). Anyway, after digging into
the fundamentals, I agree its a great buy and went long 500 @8 3/8.
Does anyone have any idea abut the sudden surge in volume today (113,700
shares traded as opposed to normal 24,000)?
It was encouraging to see TMBS holding its own in the market sell-off of tech
stocks over the last few days!
======================================================
Subj: Re:Increase in volume 12/17
Date: 96-12-19 01:59:01 EST
From: Foolshdog
Hey Roadblok. Let me be the first Timberfool to say welcome aboard. I don't
know why we are seeing higher volume. I have heard no news for awhile and don't plan on any news until year end earnings come out late January.
You said you have read previous postings, so you are aware I've been looking
for more volume and higher and higher volume as we get closer to that earnings
release. We got the twin spikes I've talked about(the two days of 216k in volume about three weeks apart), but I wasn't looking for the 100k+ we got on Tuesday and we still havn't seen much(if any) price improvement(I expected a little bit with the second spike).
Anyway, I think you got in at a great price and at a great time. I look forward to your contributions.
Jim Arden(Foolshdog)
======================================================
Subj: Re:Increase in volume 12/17
Date: 96-12-19 11:19:37 EST
From: Roadblok
Thanks for the welcome and best holiday wishes to all!
I was wondering whether or not the increased volume could have been due to
the report that new housing starts were unexpectedly up as reported early
this week in NY Times (about 19%? not sure of exact figure). Isn't there a
possibility that this would increase demand for TMBS products and services as
construction firms do their annual accounting?
I realise and greatly appreciate that this board deals with solid facts, very
little hype and minimal speculation, so is this worth a serious thought?
======================================================
Subj: Re:Increase in volume 12/17
Date: 96-12-20 16:29:20 EST
From: Foolshdog
I suppose the good housing number could of interested some investors, but I
doubt it. The
housing starts # is pretty volatile and by itself(one month) is a poor
indicator. I also don't
suspect there are too many people that invest in TMBS that weigh top down
considerations
very heavily. It is an interesting thought however.
-Jim
======================================================
Subj: Any News
Date: 96-12-30 22:22:54 EST
From: HMSDOC
I am typically a 'lurker' here as well as a 'long' on TMBS and have
appreciated all the very helpful information and lack of hype on this board.
However, it has been very quiet here lately, especially since the
underwhelming news in last quarters earning report. Has there been any more
info as of late to explain what the problem was (as I remember there were a
few theories being thrown around) or any news about what corrective measures
might have been undertaken. Is this still a long term 'hold' if next quarter
report is disappointing. Apreciate all opinions on this.
Howard
======================================================
Subj: Re:Any News
Date: 97-01-01 15:18:23 EST
From: RCNusbaum
<<Is this still a long term 'hold' if next quarter report is disappointing.>>
I guess that would all depend on how dissapointing any given report is. I
don't expect to be disappointed, though. I maxed out my position a month or
so ago around 8 1/8, and plan on holding for many more quarters.
Happy New Year,
-RCNusbaum (aka Radsman)
======================================================
Subj: Re:Any News
Date: 97-01-02 08:53:24 EST
From: Roadblok
My sentiments exactly radsman. If I had more cash I would continue to buy. In
any case, I don't think a dissappointing quarter a bad company makes.
Timberline isn't leaving my portfolio for quite a while (if ever!! -:)).
======================================================
Subj:
Re:Any News
Date: 97-01-03 02:55:57 EST
From: Foolshdog
<<Is this still a long term 'hold' if next quarter report is disappointing.>>
This is an excellent question! The only significant new thing I learned
since the last report is that September was a good month but did not make up
for the slow July/August period. This was revealed in the quarterly report
and they also said they were optimistic about Q4. So it would
seem from this that thier Q3 just had seasonal problems. However until we
see the Q4 report, this remains an uncertainty and we can't rule out a more
serious problem. I think this next earnings report is the most important
since I have followed the company. I plan to extensively
re-evaluate my position in the stock at that time and I would urge others to
do as well. But for
now, I am more than willing to wait for that news and I think it will be
good.
Meanwhile my rudimentary technical analysis couldn't be more bullish which
should make that wait all the more pleasurable. Thanks for the postings
folks.
-Jim
======================================================
Subj: Re: Moving forward again
Date: 97-01-13 22:27:31 EST
From: MikesTR6
With the recent move toward the double digit price area, I would have thought
this board would have had a few more posts in the last week or so from some
of you close following fools. But Noooo ! I'm sure I am not the only fool
who has noticed the increase in volume and the uptick in price and I believe
FOOLISHDOG ( Jim ) got it right when stated in an earlier post that the big
increase in volume we had appx. 6 weeks ago should be followed by light
trading for a short period of time with more volume surge therafter if we are
to match historic volume/price patterns of a year earlier.
It's beginning to get interesting again, after a long basing pattern.
Mike
======================================================
Subj: Re: Moving forward again
Date: 97-01-14 07:48:56 EST
From: Roadblok
Agree with you Mike; beginning to look very interesting. Based on past
trading patterns am expecting 2 1/2 pop above previous high i.e. if history
repeats itself before settling back down to a stagnant base around 10 - 11
for a while; not a prediction mind you but an observation that might be
useful for tracking patterns in understanding the behaviour of this
stock.Subj: Re: Moving forward again
Date: 97-01-16 18:34:50 EST
From: Foolshdog
Yes indeed, I have noticed the move up. It's great to see double figures
again. I have confirmed with the company that earnings will be released the
morning of 1/28. That is a Tuesday morning at 8:00 am eastern time. Also I
recently discovered the Timberline website at www.timberline.com. I was quite
impressed so check it out. I'm not sure how long it has been around.
Talk at ya later,
-Jim
======================================================
Subj: Re: Moving forward again
Date: 97-01-17 06:10:32 EST
From: Roadblok
Thanks Jim for the info on the website - appreciate the help and support on
this board. Will check it out.
Mike(Roadblok).
======================================================
Subj: Re: Question for you guys
Date: 97-01-17 06:17:03 EST
From: Roadblok
Any suggestions on other good small cap stocks to look at will be
appreciated. I am looking to make some portfolio changes. Feel free to e-mail
if other stock suggestions might be an intrusion on this board.
Thanks
Mike
======================================================
Subj: Re:Drop
Date: 97-01-21 21:39:29 EST
From: Foolshdog
Howard, I don't know of any news and earnings aren't due for another week.
There was mucho selling at the end of the day, about 20k shares in many
seperate trades. Although this is disconcerting, it will take a lot more
selling presure to change this recent uptrend. I'm holding tight and looking
forward to earnings.
-Jim
======================================================
Subj: Re:Drop
Date: 97-01-21 22:47:29 EST
From: HMSDOC
Jim,
Thanks for the info. As a matter of fact, thanks to the many posters on this
board who have taken their time to make this one of the best and most helpful
boards in Fooldom. I feel comfortable with the analyses etc and the lack of
hype...wish more of the boards were like this one. I am holding on as well,
but will have my concerns if we have another disconcerting quarter. We shall
see..
Howard
======================================================
Subj: Re:Drop
Date: 97-01-22 00:29:54 EST
From: BKB123050
I was looking all over the net for info about TMBS. I thought for sure they
came out with earnings that were not in line with expectations, but couldn't
find a thing. Any "whispers" out there.
I've been following TMBS for a while using point and figure charting, and
when it broke thru 9.5, it was a buy signal. I wound up getting in at 10 and
still feeling like a champ (this was yesterday) since it jumped up to 10.75.
Today with the almost 2 point drop, I'm feeling like a chump. I suppose if I
go bananas too much I'll feel like a chimp!
Enough with the bad humor. At any rate, I'm also hanging in there, however
with the large volume, and the fact that this drop was because of lots of
trades, I'm worried that some info got out somewhere and started the minor
stampede.
BKB
======================================================
Subj: Re:Drop
Date: 97-01-22 07:45:37 EST
From: Bds CPA
Unfortunately, the little guys (and gals) like us, never get the "inside
scoop" on what is going on with the company. Even with all of the laws,
rules, and regs re "insider info", it still happens....
BUT -- that being said, I am a STRONG advocate of TMBS and expect GREAT
things from them in the next couple of years! My only concern would be an
economic slowdown caused by a uptick in inflation and the accompanying hike
in interest rates. This could significantly dampen the construction industry
and TMBS's near-term prospects. Continued slow growth would be great!
bdscpa
======================================================
Subj: Re:Drop
Date: 97-01-22 10:02:03 EST
From: Roadblok
As an intentional long term holder, I am not worrying until fundamentals
(niche company in construction software- can't find the competition, great
balance sheet, excellent m/ment, increasing revenue stream from servicing old
and bringing in additional accounts, happy & satisfied old & new clients,
very reasonable p.e.valuations, solid growth, even pays a dividend and last I
heard construction industry up strongly) change. To refer a Foolish saying: A
class students may sometimes get a B grade but tend to revert to A grade
form! As far as I'm concerned the shakeout removes momentum players who might
cause me unnecessary financial pain if the mkt. gets a bit roiled.
We should recognise too the various ways money is made buying long in the
mkt. - short term swing trading ex. dimd 12-14, cprd 17-21 at regular
intervals last year, riding a monster high flier with all associated risks
ex. zitl early Jan., buying great unrecognised companies and smiling when
street legitimizes it ex. sunw, buying recognized legit. companies presently
snoozing and enjoying startling momentum on awakening ex. orcl languishing @
41, buying peerless companies with inevitable upward momentum ex. intel OR
BUYING NICHE SMALL CAPS WITH EXCELLENT POTENTIAL LIKE TMBS, waiting couple
years for dramatic upswing while accepting incremental gains ex. I think an
excellent suggestion in response to my request on a previous post (Thanks a
lot guys!!) illustrates this -Simpson manufacturing another niche
construction co. supplying building ties might just be an indicator of what
could happen to tmbs- try yearly graph.
Actually, I got really good suggestions but if tmbs continues to soften in
the 8-9 range, I don't need to ponder, I'm just buying more tmbs!!!
Long & Strong on TMBS.
Mike
======================================================
Subj: SOTA vs TMBS
Date: 97-01-22 13:45:51 EST
From: Jalali
Accounting software maker STATE OF THE ART (Nasdaq: SOTA) gained $1 1/8 to
$13 7/8 after reporting fourth quarter revenue growth of 14% and EPS of
$0.14.Π(see news SOTA)
SOTA trades at a 55 PE and 3 times sales.
TMBS trades at a 21 PE and 1.6 times sales.
All TMBS growth and ratios better than SOTA
======================================================
Subj: Re:Drop
Date: 97-01-22 14:11:00 EST
From: Foolshdog
Well this morning/early afternoon we have had nothing but buys and we are
getting thru that supply that was dumped on the market yesterday. It looks
like it is going higher again. Mr. market likes to give investors those gut
checks occassionally.
I agree w/ Jalali that SOTA is a good stock to compare with TMBS. I think
SOTA is even a little undervalued even though the multiples are much higher
than TMBS. It is just that TMBS is significantly undervalued. Anyway,
looking forward to earnings!
-Jim1 |
