B, I do think it will fall like Ciena, if not more. SLR, JBL and Sanm are tied to undercapacity in the box and chip area. Right now, we have overcapacity and and a huge inventory glut and the OEMs are just starting to realize it. At that point, these guys get contract none, which has a way of cutting multiples.
I am not buying any more yet. I believe that it will take a while to sort out the pc and chip eps reports next month, which are likely to be good, with the warnings about business falling off a cliff. Bad sales at Ingram, Inacom, Vanstar, Microage and Compucom have yet to hit the public consciousness. They will, and that is when we want a second third, IMHO.
MB |
