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Technology Stocks : Hyperion Solutions (HYSL) - An Analytical Gorilla?
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To: Trader Dave who wrote (302)12/30/1998 6:31:00 PM
From: Albert Youssef   of 471
 
To justify this kind of price, I'd expect to see an estimate meltdown and not just some risk to estimates. It's not as if this stock has been a high flyer that's been in favor! A software company with a P/E of 10 is being priced with the expectations that only bleak days lie ahead for the company (i.e. - no growth in revenues/earnings, complete lack of visibility, market saturation in the company's primary product, crippling competiton, etc...), and nothing I've read would indicate this anywhere near the degree that the stock price indicates.

I have a question: you mention that it's getting CHEAP, but you weren't sure if it was "inexpensive". Is this based on the general bad feeling that all of us investors currently harbor towards the stock? Or has there been a very fundamental change in your view of the company over the last several months? I know that you've been more cautious of late, but I don't remember where you turned bearish on the company's outlook. Unless I'm misreading your posts.

My entry into this really came as a result of an ill-timed purchase of Arbor, a couple of weeks before the merger was announced (I know... OUCH). I haven't sold because despite all the FUD, there hadn't seemed to be a corresponding decline in the company's mid-to-long term fundamental outlook, as I see it. On the other hand, I haven't averaged down either because it doesn't take a genius to see that someone who probably has more info than me seriously dislikes the company. And that makes me nervous.

Anyway, in the meantime, maybe we should change the name of this thread to "Hyperion Solutions (HYSL) - An Analytical Dog!".

Thanks in advance for your response; I do enjoy reading your insights.

- Al Youssef
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