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Technology Stocks : Brite Voice (BVSI)

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To: Mark Willoughby who wrote (414)12/30/1998 10:50:00 PM
From: James B. Barnes  Read Replies (1) of 495
 
Here's the way I figure it. It's current PE based on eps the last four quarters is 23.4 ($7.25/.31). I think that's quite acceptable based on anticipated growth rate. If this year comes in at .39 and 1999 comes in at .56 then the growth rate will be 43.6%. Buying that at a current pe of 23.4 would seem to me to be a good value.

If this Q comes in at .13 and they book a gain of .75 to 1.00 on the recent sale of part of the company, than I figure the book value per share will go to $7.00 to $7.25. What a safety factor for current investors. Also, if companies are looking at acquiring BVSI, what a bargain, at current prices it costs them literally nothing for their business. (I don't mean we'd sell out at these prices, but even a $12.00 bid would only cost them a net $5.00 per share).

Sales/Price Ratio- The CFO said 1998 sales from continuing operations would probably be about $125 mil. Divide that by 12.4 mil. shares and you get a ratio of about $10.00 of sales per share. At a current price of $7.25 that's a SPR of .73. (I think that's right) I'd think a ratio of 1 to 1 would not be overpricing the stock which would suggest a current price of $10.00 per share. A year from now based on the CFO's sales estimates would yield a price of around $12.50 at a 1 to 1 ratio.

Criticism is welcome, I guess.

James
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