i would post the url but don't know how, thought this article would of interest, article from industry standard.
E-commerce Predictions for 1999
By Maryann Jones Thompson
The fantastic e-commerce growth in 1998 begs just
one question: What will happen in 1999?
Analysts seem to agree that as the industry
matures, it will be nearly impossible to maintain the
phenomenal growth rate experienced by online
retailers this year. But they also agree that revenue
levels will continue to rise and commerce-enabling
technology will continue to advance.
"It will be a healthy, but not spectacular, year for
the electronic commerce industry as a whole,"
predicts Bill Burnham, an analyst at Credit Suisse
First Boston. "But the industry is being pushed
forward by its basic fundamentals, which are
growing quite nicely."
Burnham sees this continued growth finally making
a dent – albeit a small one – in overall retail sales.
"We're moving from a drop in the bucket to a trickle,
and I'm sure [that] in a few years it will be a nice
steady flow."
And 1999 will also be a landmark year for
business-to-business e-commerce. Forrester
Research predicts that these types of transactions
will amount to $109 billion next year – more than
double the 1998 total and over six times the
business-to-consumer market projected for 1999.
Mainstream industries such as automotive, shipping
and petrochemicals are poised to replicate the
e-commerce successes realized in the high-tech,
finance and retail fields.
"Part of it has to do with the organizational side of
the business: many companies now have Internet
strategy boards in place," says Forrester Research
analyst Michael Putnam.
Clearly, the widespread success of consumers
shopping online will help pave the way for adoption
of improved e-commerce technologies.
"We'll see more experiments with auction as a
sales format [by online merchants]," says Nicole
Vanderbilt, director of digital commerce at Jupiter
Communications. Other predictions: a race to
develop "electronic wallets" and experiments with
3-D merchandising.
Zona Research vice president Greg Blatnik adds
that the coming adoption of XML, HTML's
successor, will make it easier for specific
information to be exchanged by buyers and sellers.
"Agents and shopping bots will work more
effectively."
But not all analysts are bullish on bots – the
electronic agents that scan several sites for the
best bargains. Internet expert Donna Hoffman says
she finds the focus on price rather than value
"disconcerting."
"[Bots] are a horrible distraction from what people
really want," says Hoffman. "They will be [the
source of] a lot of wasted effort in '99."
And though International Data Corp. predicts many
sites will offer voice-enabled sales and support in
the coming year, Barry Parr, director of
e-commerce strategies at IDC, notes that positive
buying experiences will do the most to drive digital
retailing in 1999.
"Next year, customer-service leaders are going to
emerge and distinguish themselves on things that
have nothing to do with technology," Parr says.
Mentioned in this article
PEOPLE
Donna Hoffman Professor and Co-director, Project 2000, Vanderbilt University
COMPANIES
Credit Suisse First Boston New York, NY
Forrester Research Cambridge, MA
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