Continuation of earlier post:
The S&N/ATIS alliance is said to be as strong as ever, with an upcoming 15 million due to ATIS in 1/99 and continuing alliance Transcyte sales in this qtr. leaving us waiting for qtrly results to come due in either S&N or ATIS to see how all is progressing...a fairly big early-term indicator for this product and the strength of having S&N backing the sales. Should hear 2/99 for the qtrly reports, although I believe S&N only reports semiannually...as shared with me recently by ATIS. One issue that comes to mind as the reason for S&N to maintain this alliance is that they have put a ton here already and have heavily stakes their future on ATIS. They have a long history as a solid wound healing company/leader in the industry, but the industry is changing and they want to remain/move ahead in the forefront, as well as finally get away from being a stoic/nothing to get excited about kind of company, as they have always been. Face it...what has been exciting for investing in a wound repair company in the past?? Throw in some tissue engineering and amazing new biotechnology breakthroughs, and if it works half as well as is believed, it can only help further S&N in the investment community.
The dermagraft study, as I believe Rick has discussed before, involves 30 centers, with the past run rate being at @ 1 person/mth, and the timeframe taking 12 weeks. If all are on-line, it would take 6 months for all to be enrolled and another 12 weeks to complete, meaning 9 months from time of initiation, and a bit longer to get the data and fda presentation together, leaving 8-9/99 as quite reasonable if the data is good. I wouldn't expect much info to be available regarding this before this time, although there is always the outside chance of beating this date by a small timeframe. With an 8/99 likely release of information to the fda, again only if the data is consistent with past findings..otherwise, it either ends or keeps going to the full 330 patient compliment, it would be hard to imagine any further fda delays or panels(they already didn't listen to the recommendations of the first one)....meaning a likely expedited review, so approval within 6 months of this, if all goes according to plan.....so figure 1Q/2000. There is little for ATIS to do in the meantime in terms of promotion or publicity, because what truly is there to say until the dermagraft data is out....been there, done that, so to speak....unless new info. becomes available:
-other dermagraft indication trials
-cartilage info...therapeutic range still being maximized
-cardiovascular info...there have been preliminary dialogues regarding new strategic alliances(same for gene therapy). These 2 areas won't involve S&N, and could end up involving 2 totally different new partners if all moves forward. Ain't no guarantee about if/when with strategic alliances, but if they come this new year, especially if before the dermagraft data is out, it would be a significant boost to the company.....no longer would seem to have all the proverbial eggs in one basket so to speak.
Otherwise, I don't expect to hear much from anyone, such as Goldman-Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wedbush, etc. until there is something further to analyze. I also don't see any presentations in advance of the data being anything overly exciting, unless it involves new patents, etc. We all have to keep in mind that the majority of ownership is still little fish right now, so 1999 should be more telling whether we're way undervalued right now, or overvalued by a bit more than 2 points.
Good luck everyone, and happy new year.
Marshall |
