<<< extremely useful when Bramson was maneuvering the company around the landmines of bankruptcy. But times have changed. Ampex is no longer on the pink sheets. ...and David is still smarting from the whooping that the Japanese Goliath gave him over the Lemoine patent. >>
The metamorphosis, probably the most difficult thing these CEO types have to face. To begin with, operationally speaking, most are of necessity pretty thick skinned self reliant types who likely give a fig for anyone else, yet they must function in a competitive interrelated world of people and personalities.
That's why I liked A. Groves "Only the Paranoid Survive". It wasn't just about Intel or about the chip business, but it was as much about A. Grove's personality and his need to "morph" himself and Intel through its change as mandated by evolving market forces. Incidentally, the loss of Intel's component business memory chip market share to offshore competitors and it's eventual re-focus on a end-user (business and consumer) marketing oriented CPU chip business does have some parallel's both for Bramson and for Ampex's current "long range" planning.
Were we left just with occasional shareholder letters or management discussion I would say that there was very little hope. Another purveyor of back end technology and equipment who would be ever so subject to the deals made on the "front end" by business and government agencies. Eventually, probably cut out of the market entirely as soon as there was a shift toward using a different underlying technology obsoleting whatever it had to offer.
However, though also disappointed that there are no announcements of significant effect, during the past year there have been clues about a new direction: Cooper, Imagio, the "job posting" with it's notion of the "consumer business", the web-hoster binder and the Internic reservations.
Now it is possible that these "clues" amount to so much "fools gold" that we here on this board run with as we conjure up our hopes and imaginations. But, I don't think so.
What I do find encouraging is the combination of these "outside influences" and the drubbing which Ampex the company got in the courts and in the storage market and the trashing which AXC the stock got in the listed markets. If there ever was a compelling set of circumstance to force the metamorphosis then this has to be it.
IMO, the low share price represents a rare opportunity for fundamental investors who using balance sheet valuations (not necessarily income flows) and say price to earnings price to sales measures, to savor a somewhat risky gambit.
For more so technically oriented investors like myself, it represents the chance to jump on a good turnaround candidate which has the following characteristics:
1) Share price selling at 52 week lows and also at historic lows.
2) Bottom like pattern formation here or somewhere about here.
3) The possible victim of misfortune in it's market environment.
4) An air of discouragement and disappointment with miserable shareholders.
5) A lack of analyst coverage.
6) Significant assets of both tangible and intangible measure.
7) An ongoing business with an operational business history.
7) Signs of management recognition of a problem.
8) Possible hints of a change in the making.
Incidentally, I might point out that stocks which have enjoyed the greatest percentage gain in a given year, at their lows, start out in conditions of dreadful fundamentals, miserable perceptions and surly investor relationships. In the next few weeks, the WS Journal will print its tabulations of best and worst performers for the past year. I like to study the best performers for the conditions that they were in when they were at their lows.
Ed Perry
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