>But why didn't you see their turn coming when it went from around $13 to $35?
If we're gonna be talking about all the things I didn't see, this isn't gonna be a very pleasant experience for me ;)
I also didn't foresee KMAG's moonshot from 2 to 10, and that has been far more unpleasant intellectually, emotionally, and oh yeah, financially.
The market seems to think that the HD market is on the mend, but I beg to differ. Nobody of any significant size has yet to be taken out. Stormedia doesn't count. Gloom and doom Larry is still looking for the complete wipeout of the American media suppliers Komag and HMT, AMC bankruptcy (not that anyone would notice or care), Read-Rite losing its independence or diluting massively, WDC existing as nothing more than IBM's MKE.
Hutch has real issues financing its aggressive TSA expansion. It remains to be seen whether this huge, naked bet will pay off, although I wouldn't be buying Innovex right about now. All I know is that their cost of capital isn't exactly low.
>It would be nice if Fujitsu and Seagate were customers, but you can't have it all.
Huh? Seagate is a customer.
>I believe anyone who calls for high values on a HDD company is asking for a lot of help from a market that traditionally things these companies are losers.
Au contraire! These stocks are like our fair President. They have become more dear while their prospects have dimmed. I call this a stealth multiple expansion. Back when I owned Intel when it was actually cheap, it was projected to earn $8 (before the split, so it's now $4) in 98 and $11 ($5.50) in 99. Nevertheless, the stock remained obstinately below $200 ($100). You know the rest. Intel is at its highest current and backward PE ever, and 98 and 99 numbers are significantly lower. |
