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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum
WDC 139.09-0.8%Nov 21 3:59 PM EST
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To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (5132)12/31/1998 5:09:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer  Read Replies (2) of 9256
 
Finally, life on this thread! HTCH isn't without risk, but its the only drive stock I believe can double from here IF things continue along their present curve. I share Lawrence's skepticism with the other drive stocks due to the excess capacity.
What I like about HTCH:
-TSA which has been ramping VERY nicely for several quarters (wake up
skeptics!!), now at nearly 5 mil per week producing extremely nice revenue growth due to pricing at 2 to 3 times that of conventional.
-Output per unit steadily increasing with their best units having attained outputs typical of conventional ( about 300K per unit per week and showing that output from other units can be nearly doubled).
-Margins improving nicely, with this quarter the key to assessing just how far this has come.
-All competitors working on producing a TSA suspension incorporating HTCH's expensive flexure.
-The competition barely producing any pico non wireless suspensions. So far no second source has even qualified on suspensions for Seagate's attractive very high volume Cheetah program.
-The generation beyond Pico promises to be much more difficult technologically.
-HTCH claims to have broad patents covering microactuation which soon becomes essential to increasing densities.
-SEG and Fujitsu remain potential customers once HTCH has the capacity. It appears SEG screwed up being last to the party (one of their many foulups during that time period!).
-AS for the balance sheet, coming profitability, conversion of in the money convertible debt and issuance of a few million shares at current prices or higher will change that picture rather dramatically.

Good luck, Z
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