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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 652.56-1.5%Nov 20 4:00 PM EST
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To: Richard J. Byrd who wrote (3142)12/31/1998 11:03:00 AM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
***************************** CYCLE PROJECTIONS *****************************

Last Next Estimated Cycle Estimated
Cycle Projected Cycle Top Middle Cycle Top
Cycle Low Cycle Low Bull Mkt Point Bear Mkt
------------------- -------- --------- --------- -------- ---------
10-Week Cycle.....: 12/14/98 02/20/99 01/28/99 01/17/99 01/06/99
20-Week Cycle.....: 10/08/98 02/22/99 01/07/99 12/15/98 11/23/98
9-Month Cycle.....: 10/08/98 07/09/99 04/08/99 02/22/99 01/07/99

When estimating where a cycle will top, we assume it will top late in a bull
market (after about 2/3 of the cycle has been completed). In a bear market we
assume the cycle will top early (after about 1/3 the cycle has been
completed). We also assume that all lesser cycles will bottom simultaneously
with the 9-Month Cycle, and all new cycle projections are calculated from the
last 9-Month Cycle low. Estimated cycle low dates may be exceeded by days or
weeks before the cycle low can be positively identified and a new start date
established.

decisionpoint.com

>>>Next week will be 13 weeks from beginning of current bull run.
>>>70% of bull runs last between 10 to 15 weeks (Bressert's book
>>>on cycles). Down period after that tends to be 4-7 weeks with
>>>the final push of 3-4 weeks before the 6 month top in the cycle.
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