IDG'S PC WORLD PREDICTS THE FUTURE OF PCS
Tomorrow's PCs Will Be Smarter, Smaller, Better-Connected, and
Better-Looking: Shoebox-Size Desktop PCs, 1GHz CPUs, Sub-$1000 Budget
Notebooks, Flat Screens
And More
SAN FRANCISCO, Dec. 31 /PRNewswire/ -- It seems like technology is
changing faster than ever. Office storage rooms are filled with great
technological advances that never made it past version 1.0. But, is it
possible to avoid buying hardware that becomes obsolete before it's
paid for? Yes -- if you shop wisely. That's why the February 1999 PC
World cover story, "Your PC in the New Millennium," (online now at
www.pcworld.com/feb99/futurepcs and on newsstands January 19, 1999)
provides a guide to the technologies and trends that will shape the
design of PCs for the next three years.
CPUs and Storage: By 2000, Intel's mainstream desktop CPUs will zoom
along at a torrid 700 MHz. In addition, the coming three years will see
numerous new processor families (more than two dozen new CPUs will
appear in the next 18 months), a new memory standard -- Direct Rambus
DRAM -- and perhaps the end to the motherboard as we know it. The
enhancements will allow new PCs to handle the emerging tasks of 3D
graphics, full-motion MPEG-2 video, and applications like voice
recognition. Bringing the keyboard, pen, camera, and speech together,
these systems will add new dimensions to PC interfaces. At the lower
end, rivalries between chipmakers will improve performance of sub-$1000
desktops and drive budget notebook prices down. In terms of storage,
CD-Rewritable may turn out to be the common format for removable
storage. By 2000, 50GB hard drives will be commonplace; by 2001, that
number could double to 100GB.
The Box: On the aesthetic side, PCs will look better and get smaller.
The archaic ISA expansion bus will disappear, freeing up vendors to use
smaller motherboards and experiment with space-saving PC designs. Some
analysts predict that by 2002, many desktop PCs will be as small as a
shoebox. More affordable LCD displays will also take pounds and girth
out of monitors -- LCDs weigh one fifth as much as today's CRTs, take
up one third of the space, and use half the electricity. "Thin is in"
for notebooks, yet the need for touch-typeable keyboards will limit how
much these machines can shrink. Stunning 15-inch LCD screens will find
a home in desktop replacements -- feature-laden notebooks that will
spend most of their time in the office, not on the road.
The Internet: For many users, the biggest issue is how they will
connect to the Internet in 2000 and beyond. Unfortunately, most homes
and small businesses will rely on the same old phone lines and modems
they use today. On the other hand, phone companies will begin to
deliver reliable, low-cost voice-over-Internet Protocol telephony
services. It will become more common to rent applications over the
Internet, Web-based services will let individuals and groups post and
share information online, and applications will become more Web savvy.
Handhelds: Over the next two years, cell phones, beepers, and personal
digital assistants will merge to form powerful communications tools.
But don't rule out Windows CE Pro "Jupiter" machines yet. At prices
less than $1000, these machines plug a gap between tiny handhelds and
full-features notebook computers that cost twice as much. However, the
real breakthrough in handhelds may come in late 1999, when devices
start using a wireless technology called Bluetooth, which will enable
fast short-range communications between devices.
The article also includes a roadmap of CPU releases and a complete
chart listing the buzz and potential drawbacks to the technological
developments outlined above.
PC World is the world's largest monthly computer publication with a
circulation rate base of 1.2 million. PC World and PC World Online (
pcworld.com ) are published by PC World Communications,
Inc., a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading IT media, research and
exposition company. IDG publishes more than 290 computer magazines and
newspapers and 500 book titles and offers online users the largest
network of technology-specific sites around the world through IDG.net (
idg.net ), which comprises more than 240 targeted Web sites
in 55 countries. IDG is also a leading producer of 168 computer-related
expositions worldwide, and provides IT market analysis through 49
offices in 41 countries worldwide. Company information is available at
idgcorporate.com.
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