No it wasnt me, and to be honest I find the analysis useless. That is just my opinion.
I was seeing things like
Base price of MALL = 10
If UBID is 50 , premium is 40 for Mall so = 10+40=50 MALL share price
etc...whatever.
My degree is economics and stock trading on internets uses the basic tenent of economics, supply and demand. On most stocks & most industries, you can at least base some comparisons to others in the industry to formlate values. But interNUT stocks are a totally different animal.
All I know is SUPPLY = 19M
and much of that is tied up with institutions for now. As you can see before today, both HERE and on Yahoo web site there were very few posters (maybe 2 or 3 a day here) and about 30 a day on Yahoo. That tells me very few individuals held DBCC stock before today. So, much of the supply has been bought up by the institutions so the "actual" float for the short term is a lot less than 19M (to me at least) i.e. maybe 7 or 8M is held by instutions making the actual float perhaps 11M for the little guys like you and I.
Then we have DEMAND = ???
All I know is today was the 1st day Kernan talked about DBCC .. and it wont be the last. So you have the CNBC affect all next week.
You have the 2nd most active stock on the NASDAQ today.
A lot of traders were not trading today... they will come back Monday to see "whats hot" for the next week.
A lot of people may read about it in Business Week.
I would expect some articles in other sources the upcoming week.
You have the roadshow starting 1/4/99 (Monday)
So to me that all makes up the DEMAND side.
This will go up until you have more people selling than buying. It happened 2 days before the UBID Ipo for MALL, and I dont know the scenario here. Its a much larger float and a lot more stable investors (i.e. the entire MALL float was probably daytraders). So we shall see... I wont be greedy, but I also wont sell until you see the euphoric frenzy that always accompanies this sort of action. Always best to sell when there is a frenzy and that should happen by the end of next week/beginning-mid of week of 1/11
Until then I expect to see a lot of new people, and a lot of false rumors about delays by shorters and people who want to go long at lower prices. A lot of people will be buying/selling to scalp 10-20% a day.. that will add to the volatility. If you can stomach it and your crystal ball is that good, than so be it. But at this point this close to the IPO its not worth scalping 1 point, and chance missing out on a 6 point advance.
Last, we should have a pretty damn good Internet environment. The "little internet" stocks that shot up last week were jokes.. but the big names should help us. AOL moving to the S&P 500 will be awesome.. all those huge index funds have to buy it. AMZN and other etailors will post their Christmas figures and I think they will be awesome. Just from talking to people in the office, people I never thought had any computer savvy bought stuff online .. as did their wives ;) So that will create a very bullish internet background for the very near term.
Should make for a fun week ;)
P.S. Everything I say is total conjecture and I could be totally wrong... *grin*
Signing off now--time to revel in the New Year,
Mark |
