I wouldn't disagree with the points you've made because in the past, I've made them myself. AOL was the pioneer. That is tremendously significant. I have criticisms of AOL, but my remarks were directed to the naive adoption the public practices when considering a service provider. They don't investigate. Like lemmings they'll change direction in choice based upon a discovery that doesn't seem significant to the knowledgeable.
In this case the discovery will be ATHM's broadband. None of us think that is a big deal, but the public will suddenly en masse make a move to engage cable. It has been one of TCI's and ATHM's biggest concerns and why they don't actively advertise. This is true even if all households were already pulled to HFC and even if there were installation kits available in electronics stores. At least 2/3 of the demanding public can't engage ATHM without a hookup crew coming out and/or an area team pulling HFC to the junctions and headends. Headend equipment, RDC equipment and staffing, maintenance crews, and all the rest of the support needed, is not as overwhelming as the basic installation, but in massive scale? Not possible.
There is just enough time for AOL to go off on a DSL escapade and discover much to the chagrin of the hosting telcos, that that Goose won't fly, or won't fly outside of the red. The only way is QoS in DSL. This is viable, but the public is sensitive to price above established points. This is not rational, but it's true. I have to admit when I received the local telco's DSL offer, it was not attractive. My attitude was that I might as well wait for cable and continue to struggle with copper.
In the past I have suggested that there is a good market for AOL in the low end, in copper. There are many who would get along fine with copper speeds at the lower price. Cable for years may be charged on a bytes pulled basis. In that case copper remains attractive to a good percentage of the people. Eventually, this will all disappear, but right now, these factors are significant. We have to get out of this thinking that it is us or them. It wasn't that way between telegraph and telephone, so AOL and ATHM may never be competitors, they could end up complementary services addressing different tiers in the market. |
