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Biotech / Medical : QDEL - Quidel more quick diagnosis

QDEL 27.52

-2.2%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Robert Busse who wrote (362)	1/23/1997 8:51:00 PM
From: Mike Relyea	of 1693

Bob, Thanks for the information about the conference call. Here's some of my number crunching. I've rounded off and based some of the calculations on Quidel's recent report and the conference call. 40M (Approximate FY 97 Annual Sales) X23% (Annual Sales Growth)= 9.2M (FY 98 Sales Increase) X50% (Margin)= 4.6M (FY 98 Net Sales Increase) 4.6M/ 22M (Shares)= $0.21 (FY 98 Earnings/Share Increase) $0.21+ (FY 98 Earnings/Share Increase) $0.18 (FY 97 Earnings (.02+.02+.08+.06))= $0.39 $0.39X (Total FY 98 Earnings/Share) 30 (P/E)= $11.70 Also, I think QDELW is still very undervalued when compared to QDEL. Here's a formula for determining at what price (X) QDEL would have to be (April 2002) in order for QDELW to be a better buy than QDEL: X = 7.5/(1-(QDELW/QDEL)) Assume the following: X = $30 (QDEL's price on April 2002) QDEL = $5.00 (today's price) Then: 30 = 7.5/(1-(QDELW/5)) 30 - (30QDELW/5) = 7.5 30 - 7.5 = 6QDELW QDELW = 22.5/6 = 3.75 Even if QDEL will be only $20 on April 2002, QDELW should be selling for $3.125, well above its current price. Note that 136,800 shares traded. QDELW at its current ask price is a great buy. Mike

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