Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: larry who wrote (437)	1/1/1999 1:23:00 AM
From: Tai Jin	Read Replies (2) of 3543

The problem with measuring the markets with an index like the DOW is that the index is not representative of the market. Sure, the DOW can reach new highs, but the rest of the market could lag by quite a bit. I think that because of the index funds, the indexes will tend to do better than the rest of the market. Anyway, I think 1999 will be a good year (at least in the first half) for small cap value stocks as they have taken a beating in 1998 and everything else is overvalued. With increasing numbers of day traders, market volatility will increase. I think volatility will be an important factor in bringing down the market. I also think that there will be many more companies with disappointing earnings. I believe that Internet fever will begin to cool off as many more companies issue press releases announcing their presence on the Web, and as more Internet companies go public. Perhaps the SEC will set down new rules regarding the trading of volatile stocks (like the market circuit breakers, but applied to individual stocks). Indeed, it will be a very interesting and volatile year. ...tai

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