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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc
ATHM 23.48+1.2%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Tim McCormick who wrote (3715)1/1/1999 3:53:00 AM
From: E. Davies  Read Replies (1) of 29970
 
While my vision for ATHM in 10 years may not be quite as grand as ahhaha's (though he may be right: I think YHOO and AOL have equal chance of reaching that stage) I'd like to give a little perspective on your assumtions:

100M households with cable access.
The world is *much* larger than that. Then there are all the businesses too.

90% of these access the internet.
fair enough. Maybe even a little high when you take into account the whole world.

30% of these use cable for internet.
Are you nuts? 95% of access in 10 years will be broadband. Cable will be at least 80% of broadband. A little perspective: By my memory roughly 10 years ago we were all trading in our recently purchased 1200bps modems for new "high speed" 2400bps modems which we used to dial up bulletin boards and sometimes an online service like Compuserve.
How many people today still use a 2400bps modem?
In 10 years the current 10mb cable modems will be at least 3 or 4 generations old, and what we have now will be antiquated and grotesquely slow. It will be at least a bi-directional real-time video stream for every "computer" in the house (maybe 1 per room). Of course the computer will be running at about the equivilant of a 20GigaHertz PII.
As many people will have our current "high speed" then as use 2400bps modems today.
Broadband internet access will be the central means of all electronic communications. It will be as ubiquitous and central to our lives as the telephone and the television are today.
ATHM & T will be the provider of it, and that is just thinking small.
Eric

But my comments bring to mind a question: How much thought has been put into backwards compatability & interoperability as technology advances? How will the network (from the users view) of today migrate to the one 10 years from now?
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