Fernando,
My background is in mathematics/economics, I'm not a programmer or a network engineer. So in my account I will have to rely on my colleagues here in the thread to correct me if necessary. I'm just a network user an for a number of years a NOVL investor.
To have some perspective 5 years ago there were no browsers, Nestcape did not exist, very few of us were using the internet -just to write each other email or send files-. In short everything that is now driving Wall Street (or the DOJ) crazy did not exist.
The Windows NT model dates from those days. Yes, it has been patched up (and then some), it has been updated but it still in fundamental ways old. The model was successful, at least for the small or medium business networks, because it leveraged the applications of Windows at a very reasonable cost. It was also heavily favored by the chip makers since in order to perform better and faster it needed more and more equipment. On the other hand the system is not scalable, it is famously unreliable and in order to be all things to all people it ends up being a poor performer for the large network environments.
The advent of the internet created the problem of integrating business intranets with the internet. At the same, more importantly, it created the facto an instant network for all users.
With the new version of its operating system Novell is starting to address the issue of integrating the intranets with the internet head on. Relying on new concepts and technologies like for example JAVA it is starting to address the issue of applications for its OS.
-Look for developers to develop applications for NOVL as a sign that things are changing for the better-
Meantime the number of machines/appliances to be networked is increasing exponentially. This is not due only to the fact that more and more computers are coming to the world every second but also to the fact that many appliances hitherto not thought necessarily as computers are converging to be..It is a convergence process that is making your watch, your laptop, palmtop, cellular, tv, etc part of a network. At the very core of managing the increased complexity of such systems require directory systems that can manage a host of directory systems. i.e. metadirectories.
NOVL is leveraging its experience on directory systems and making NDS available not only for netware but also for NT users. By supporting NT in this fashion NOVL is trying a new way to compete/collaborate with MSFT.
Recently NOVL has made fundamental strategic alliances to leverage its directory systems (with Lucent, Cysco, Nortell).
MSFT is now the one behind. NT 5.00 or Windows 2000 is still not ready. Its directory system not ready. With all eyes focused on how MSFT conducts business.
It is hard to make a 5 year prediction in this industry. I would say this. If you have a great franchise with a large base of installed OS, a great group of engineers, good managers and 1 bill in cash, I will find it hard to believe that you can go wrong with your investment in the networking industry. The industry is just increasing at phenomenal rate.
Regards
Victor
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