AOL 99: KING OR PAUPER? POLL update; 1/31/99 189; 1/1/00 364
Slowly, the tally for AOL 1/1/00 is sliding. From near 400, the average guess has dropped to 364.
Easy come, easy go.
Three more additions to the poll are appreciated. Thank yous to sam, RocketMan and Jon Stept.
RocketMan is a pure bull on AOL.
AOL is growing at the current rate of 1M per month, which would double the subscriber base by the end of the year. And this is roughly the rate at which internet traffic has been growing, so this is not an anomaly. Furthermore, explosive growth follows an S-curve, and I suspect AOL is going up the steep part of the curve and will grow explosively for a while yet before it flattens out. Because of that, I would not be surprised to see a triple in 99.
Jon is conservative in his guesses of 180 by Jan. 31 and 300 for Jan. 1, 200, but sees real positives down the road.
Telecommunication costs will continue to drop as the technology improves driving down communication costs.
They will be able to target advertising more effectively and start charging a premium for it. As more companies and people go online, advertising revenue will shift from scatter shot print, TV and highway to the increasing bulls eye of the net. And companies will start to demand this of their advertisers.
They can increase subscriber fees.
Maybe Jon should talk with Art Stone, and vice-versa.
There may not be a bigger bull, however, than sam.
You'll hit the jackpot once AOL is added to the DOW!
Yes, sam means in this lifetime, you bears. Freedom of speech, people, freedom of speech...
1999 2000
Jan31 Jan1
250 500 Annette
250 540 tang
230 400 Dave Kosmayer
214 400 Bret
210 450 CRICKET
204 260 David Montgomery
200 460 Phillip A. Strong
200 400 Brian Malloy
200 37 Art Stone
192 470 Voltaire
190 475 49er Steve
190 387 Uncle Frank
185 400 lebo
185 260 sam
182 409 Modano
182 300 Jolie Renee
180 350 RocketMan
180 300 Jon Stept
180 280 Jorge
170 530 Frank Ellis Morris
170 425 Vendit
168 260 bob
160 425 Larry
155 320 BomboochaBoy
150 250 LindyBill
145 300 sakura
averages
1999 2000
Jan31 Jan1
189 364
(5107) (9848)
(27 polled)
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Analysts' targets
MSN
6/99 $246
6/00 $379
Gerard Klauer Mattison
$175
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