HC and all, my projection for next year is $92.50 is based on FMK numbers. I would think it would only take about half the earnings FMK estimated but it takes time for it all to be reported. If the batteries are being mass produced and they work there should be no problem raising money so that is a non-issue. Also, I think the nearest predictor should receive 500 shares from each participate in the stock price prediction contest!!! What do you think???
<<<think 30 mln shares is more accurate, but let's try 40 mln on for size. How bad would such a doomsdayers scenario hurt us? Here's a
modified set of estimates.
50% profits on 1mln cellphone batteries/mo from Hanil JV
---$20mln/40mln sh = ----------------------------$0.50/sh
100% profits on 1mln cellphone batt/mo by Valence on identical
Arcotronics line-----$40mln/40mln sh----------$1.00/sh
50% profits of additional production line from Hanil JV
-----------------------------------------------------$0.19/sh
90% profits on the army's $15,000 OICW (objective individual combat weapon) that an Alliant Tech spokesman stated that Valence will build
batteries for, to replace the now-standard M16 rifle. No telling when govt will announce. These numbers are no more than a wild guess.
Est 300,000 rifles x $200/batt x 33% profit = $19.8 mln/30mln
-----------------------------------------------------$0.38/sh
50% of other Alliant/Valence JV profits on Seal propulsion, combat vest batteries etc.
very rough estimate 50% of $30mln--------------------------------------------$0.38/sh
Possible laminate sales to GM Delphi automotive and royalties for SLI (starting lights ignition) batteries replacing conventional lead-acid
batteries on certain GM models-----$0.22/sh
Possible laminate sales to GM Dephi for Vehicle propulsion batteries------------------------------------------$0.22/sh
2.5 mln laptop batteries from line 1 at $75 each x 33% profit/40mln--------------------------------------$1.56/sh
10 mln unnamed application batt at $6 each x 33% profit/40mln ----------------------------------------------------$0.50/sh
25,000 unnamed application batt at $1000 each x 33% 30mln
----------------------------------------------------$0.19/sh
Estimated total earnings at 40 mln sh dilution---$5.25/sh
Possible license agreements with such companies as Mitsubishi, Sanyo, Sony or Matsushita etc. were not included. I have heard estimates
that revenue from license agreements could exceed earnings from Valence's own production.
Some related links
exchange2000.com
exchange2000.com
exchange2000.com
exchange2000.com
Applying a multiple of 20 times earnings would indicate a $105 share price with a worst-case 40 million share dilution, with the exception of
license agreements, which could add significantly to earnings.
For me, it's more than enough to continue owning as many shares as I can afford and reason to continue accumulating, especially in the
single digits. I continue to rate Valence's chance of failure at less than 0.1 %
Another possibility not mentioned by the naysayers is that a portion of these profits will likely be used to expand and buy more equipment,
reducing the earnings per share.
Of course, a fast growing company may deserve a PE of 30 or 40, making earnings plowback a moot point in view of the effect on share
price.>> |
