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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 230.27-0.6%3:59 PM EST

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To: H James Morris who wrote (32102)1/1/1999 10:50:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
My instinct tells me they'll stay for a few more months.

Maybe, but remember the mkt looks forward, not back. Christmas is history. That is priced in. I find it interesting that AMZN rallied for one day following Christmas Day, and it's been downhill from there so far. There may be a "split effect", but its hard to say. I'm thinking more sellers than buyers for the following reasons:

1) Following a split, the common wisdom is to sell the new shares and "take a free ride" on the rest.

2) This AMZN split happens first thing in the new tax year, and after a gargantuan runup in price. Anyone who had any common sense whatever would take the profits now, and play elsewhere with the tax money, which won't have to be paid until April 15th of the new millenium (15 1/2 months away).

3) What's to look forward to in the first quarter following the Christmas quarter, except a sequential drop in sales?

That last is what will cause the pressure. The look forward 3-4 months is enough to cause even the most bullish stomach do a flip-flop.
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