Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 232.38

+0.1%

9:30 AM EST

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To: Gary Walker who wrote (32171)	1/2/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (3) of 164684

I'm new to the thread, I've been watching this one for a while and I finally bit the bullet and shorted at 340 last week. Here's why. (Its not just valuation.) Could Amazon go to 700 given that it is already overvalued by a factor of at least 10x? Sure. Will I be short the stock if it does? No. Thats one reason why I chose Amazon - there is little chance the thing will double in one day, so I will have a chance to cover if things are getting out of hand. But I did not short it on valuation alone, though that was the biggest factor. The timing seems exactly right for the top. 1) the book retailing business SUCKS for 11 months out of the year - after Christmas seems like the perfect time for a top 2) Manias like this tend to peak at year ends - when the holders who have been waiting a few weeks to defer their tax bill another year all sell at once 3) The almost vertical momentum has at the very least paused. If it takes off again, I would probably cover at about 450 no matter what the valuation - I'm not stupid. 4) The valuation gives me a chance of covering at 20 if things go right, i.e if the stock winds up fairly valued and I am patient enough to wait it out. BTW, I think Barnes & Noble looks like another good short right now if you don't want to do AMZN. A LOT of hedge funds are long BKS and short AMZN. When AMZN breaks down, they will do two things. Buy (i.e. cover) AMZN and sell BKS. Maybe my strategy is to short AMZN and if I get 100 points or so and BKS hasn't broken down yet, then switch to this related play with lower risk of a major whipsaw. Wish me luck JJC

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