ABC NEWS Jan 1, 1999.....
Y2K vs. the World
Y2K vs. the World
Worldwide Millennium Preparedness Varies
The list of countries that are ready for the year 2000 computer bug is a whole lot shorter than the list of those facing serious problems. (A.Shepherd/ABCNEWS.com)
By John J. Edwards III
The Street.com
If you're trying to get a handle on just how serious the year 2000 problem is in the world beyond the U.S., a trio of statements from the Global Millennium Foundation make it starkly plain:
All countries have a serious year 2000 problem.
No country is further advanced than Canada.
Canada is losing this race.
Indeed, the Financial Times on Dec. 3 quoted Canada's auditor general, Denis Desautels, saying he is “very concerned that many essential government services may be disrupted at the start of 2000. Work on the systems supporting these services is falling behind an already tight schedule.”
Now, let's be fair to Canada.
GartnerGroup, a consulting firm that's made Y2K a specialty, places the Land of the Rising Puck in the top rank of countries dealing with the computer crisis.
The U.S., the U.K. and nine other (much smaller) countries are rated tops as well.
And that means Gartner expects 15 percent of companies in those lands to suffer a “mission-critical” system failure.
Gartner defines mission-critical failures as causing any of these unpleasantries: a shutdown of business, production or product delivery operations; health hazard to individuals; considerable revenue loss; a significant litigation expense or loss; and significant loss of customers or revenue.
The World Tries to Battle Y2K
Status Countries
Sort of OK
15% of cos. experience
a mission-critical failure Australia, Belgium, Bermuda, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, Israel, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, U.K., U.S.
Not Real Good
33% Brazil, Chile, Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan
Quite Bad
50% Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Colombia, Czech Republic, Germany, Guatemala, India, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, North Korea, Poland, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Yugoslavia
Scary
66% Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Chad, China, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya, Laos, Lithuania, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Romania, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, Thailand, Uruguay, Vietnam, Zaire, Zimbabwe
Projections as of 3Q98. Source: GartnerGroup
Looking at the ratings of the world's largest economies doesn't fill one with unalloyed confidence.
But then there are those vast land masses with modest-to-tiny economies and lots of nukes: Russia and China, both in the 66-percent failure “Scary” group.
“Given the current economic and political turmoil, it is impossible to assess Y2K preparedness” in Russia, according to a report from Millennia III.
The Westport, Conn., professional-services firm specializing in Y2K fixes.
Millennia notes that a Russian government adviser has warned of possible Y2K problems in 80% of the country's defense computers.
Not Working Well with Others
Y2K thinkers are unanimous in calling for active international cooperation at every level, from governments sharing information with their allies to corporations in Detroit and Duluth meshing plans with suppliers in Dresden and Dakar.
But precious little has been done in that direction, even at this late date.
The U.N. held its first global convention of government Y2K czars on Dec. 11. That's Dec. 11, 1998, with Y2K snafus expected to crop up throughout 1999.
According to the brief New York Times story on the event said, the confab ended with “an informal endorsement of regional cooperation.” Oh, good. That'll do it.
At least the U.N. session, mostly closed to reporters, was later called “unusually unvarnished for such a diplomatic setting,” as the Times put it.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development, an association of 29 mostly Western industrialized countries, employed pretty varnished language in its October report on Y2K readiness.
Acknowledging that “the amount of remediation still required is daunting” and the report concludes “significant negative economic impacts are likely in the short term.”.
“There is really no coordination going on whatsoever throughout the world,” says Lou Marcoccio, research director at GartnerGroup. “The only attempts so far from a coordination perspective have been a couple of very small efforts.”
Marcoccio, who testified in October before the Senate Special Committee on Year 2000 Technology Problems, stressed the need for a single federal agency to coordinate international and domestic efforts as a “Global Risk Management Agency.”
He predicts that “in the January-February timeframe,” the committee will form a subcommittee focused on global risk issues.
Isn't that too late? “I think any effort is late at this point, but I don't think that makes much difference,” Marcoccio explains. “Any effort can help to reduce the risk and reduce the impact.”
‘A Very Basic Lack of Understanding'
For corporations, the quest for solid information on international Y2K readiness is often filled with frustrations, says Craig Mengel, vice president of marketing at Millennia III.
In Mengel's view, “the larger companies have taken into account the need to define the global risks they have.” “Unfortunately,” he adds, “the information they have gotten back from their global suppliers has not been easily forthcoming or easily verifiable.”
So, as Lenin once wondered, what is to be done? Mengel says Millennia is advising clients to analyze their supply and customer chains closely, and cut ties wherever necessary.
“You have to look at an alternate supplier, one that's domestic, if possible. have to look at ways to bridge around it, to see if there's a patch or a fix so you can do business on the side,” Mengel suggests. He concludes, “This is all very worrisome from the perspective of looking at this internationally, because if a company doesn't know this yet or doesn't realize it yet, they're going to be in deep doo-doo
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