Well I see the puts going up in price, I have not bought all
I want..I also see her maybe finding some short term support,
about 34 or 35 or so..but really see her dying in april or
may..but I want to buy thoes next set of puts out april
or even July way out of the money..as I can get more kick per
dollor...but they are also going up..and I prefer to buy them
before I sell Febs..just in case she takes a real fast nose
dive..I don't want to be sold mine and and the others
go out of sight price wise while I'm fooling around negotiating
on new ones..sometimes it takes me a day. or even two to buy
a set of puts..I haggle like hell trying to get in under the
bid if I can, as I know the Market Makers are often not showing
the real ask and bid, ( but have their own pool they are playing
with and will sometime close out their pool; below the bid, at
other times like today I saw puts going out above the ask price,
a 1/16 on a put more than payes my commision so dogone if i sell
before I buy..with the price going up I might buy to hasty..,
hell I tease the MMs, on the price thats part of the game..
like puts and calls can bounce around during the day..it's
sort of crazy..some time puts even get cheaper as the stock is
going down..( till things catch up ) like they are not directly
tied to the stock price, and can even go the other way as the
OPEN INTREST..changes..they have a supply and demand side that
can differ from the stock..the closer the exp date comes and the more
in the money the put or call is..then the more they will mirror
the stock price..well by now I should have you confused enough,
so I leave it here <G> jus add while I'm haggleing price..on longer
term puts as long as I got my puts, I won't get frozen out..
like if the longer term ones go up..so will the ones I'm holding
so what I'm doing is keeping my position open..particularly on
one like this one..it could make a lurch down..I don't expect that
but it could..like the 2 and whatever it droped today had I closed
the febs out early to move ahead..I would have lost the gain while
tring to get back into a better position..now that she has done
this little dive, and being I'v been looking at her for a week..my early thoughts have changed I did not see chapter 11 when I started this..but by golly I do now..it may be out a ways but it's there at least I'v had time to dig into her some and ask around Chpt 11
a 50/50 chance of it..and being thoes puts are far enough out of
the money at this time to be kinda cheap..thats were the home run is
like 4x to 8x hits..and one more thing my feb puts are in the money
if she starts dancing..because of some I.E. ( irratioal exuberance )
I can buy the stock on lows and sell on highs
knowing I got my rear covered..( it's like short selling but reversed)
if I have that second set of puts out front, and say I buy on a low,
but she don't dance back up that day but instead falls, I can exit that position by exersizing my puts, meanwhile the ones out front increas in value, so say tomorrow I get some april 25s, this baby drop every morning; ups mid day then crepps back down in the eve..
( so far tats her style ) so if next morn she drops
I buy..she jumps up at noon I sell, all the time I'm
covered..she don't jump up..no big deal no matter how far she falls
I can get out of what I buy at 40..but I want that next set first
before I get into that..I'l be buyng alright but still holding
a short position..( and can do that on margins, so I don't need to borrow the stock to short sell her, I came at her from another angle, but will be in effect doing a short sell, ( but my butt is
covered ) well for sure u'r confused by now ?
but I understand me..u see I got the jump on this one..and want
to keep my short position locked in..I'm going to ride her to the
ground right into the dirt. and it's not going to cost me much,
outlay, I'm begining to think longs with what they have at risk
with all this I.E abounding need a brain transplant.. <G>
I mean long longs, like I got calls on ADBE..and thats a long
position, but if the market crashes my loss is limeted..
to the price of the call..I'm not like just a bear..I'm more like
a headger..try to balance my calls and puts..big crash..I lose my
calls..but puts will more than make up for it..buy calls on
strong cos..puts on dogs..stay balanced..money wise..and let the
good times roll, don't have to worry bout the DJ..or the S&P..
just hunt them bargins..dig for the bargin prices when you buy,
shop around..find a StOcK what goes up and down..get her style..
each one has its own style..and that can change..so dont accept
some ones arbitrary modle..get into the baby your tracking jus
like you were tracking an animal..she will have her pattern..or
habit of turning..sure she will not always do it..learn her prmary habits, and what the volume change can mean..how fast is she
climbing or falling on what volume, were does she stall out,
I don't buy the canlestick stuff..short selling even my style,
covered with in money puts, or calls, means I seldom hold the stock
much over a half a day..I'm a brokers dream come true..
learn her little jerks..how much volume by 10am..hmmm
up on low volume..whats that mean..on this one ! she
will not last..and will gap down or trip out of the shoot in the morning..( i have no idea how she will come out of the gate tomorrow
morning ) she was falling when she closed, and my interday charts
showed all "sales stoped just before the masket closed," hmmm havent
seen her do that this week..will find out why in the morn..could
be some after hours trading..( i hope )..as in this case it'l be
funbdumbs trying to exit their long positions..in a civalized
manner by thier standards..but means the individual who is long
will be shafted the most..with out any lubercant at that <G>
JIM |
